My Rational Pony - Pages 11 - 20

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  • It is very easy to say “I knew it” or “I always thought it will be that way” after some event happened. But if a person haven't got special training he usually can't determine and record his confidence level for beliefs and forecasts. It leads to the extending current level of confidence to the past state of the mind.
    11. Hindsight Bias
  • People overattribute causality to a given stimulus when it is salient or the focus of their attention. We tend to conclude that someone is smart because he reads a lot. Or someone reads a lot because she is smart. But both events can also have the third cause or two separate causes for each one.
    12. Illusory Causation
  • Zero-sum game can be described as a situation when some utility or money can only be moved or distributed among a number of participant. When a person wins — another loses. As a consequence all participating players can not win in the same time.
    13. Zero-Sum Game
  • There is a term used in business, cost of ownership. It includes all costs of buying, using and maintaining some equipment. When you know the cost of ownership and resource of the equipment you can calculate the cost of each use. You can do the same for common things, including clothing. A piece of clothing or footwear may appear expensive but it may be used frequently and long. In that case each time you use it will be cheap.
    14. The Cost Of Using
  • Do you think the more opportunities you have the better? It isn't always true. When a person faces extensive array of objects to choose from, the complexity of choosing increases a lot and the choice becomes very difficult.
    15. Choice Impasse
  • The good or bad impression of a person can influence our feelings and thoughts about this person's character. For example there are recommendations like this: if you go to the job interview you should dress well. Why? Because your interviewer will most likely extend the impression of your suit or dress to your skills.
    16. Halo Effect
  • If a person does something it isn't always a manifestation of person's nature or character. But other people can incorrectly make an assumption about the character — that is called fundamental attribution error.
    17. Fundamental Attribution Error
  • A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction which causes itself to become true due to the positive feedback.

    Another effect used in horoscopes is the Forer effect, also called the Barnum effect. It describes the situation when a person consider a description of his or her personality or character highly accurate, but this description is really vague and general and can be applied to a big number of people.
    18. Self-fulfilling Prophecy and Forer Effect
  • An example of anchoring effect in the area of numbers. When there is a more expensive commodity the cheaper commodity seems to be better deal. And a person can more easily choose an item with medium price.
    19. Relativity
  • A real example: 93% of American drivers rate themselves as better than the driver with median driving skill.
    20. Overconfidence